Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Could the S&P 500 be ready for its best winning streak in more than a year?
The index is one session away from an 8-streak run, the longest since Oct. 2017. Positive buzz on a U.S. trade deal (see below) appears to be laying the ground for an upbeat end to the week, and better-than-expected jobs data that just rolled out may also lend a hand.
Tech stocks have had no such luck, partly thanks to Tesla gloom, but Nasdaq enthusiasts can’t complain too much with the index up 2% so far this year, well ahead of the S&P and Dow.
There’s lots more tech enthusiasm in our call of the day, from Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, who predicts in his latest email to clients that Amazon AMZN, +1.01% shares will could hit $3,000 by 2021, and surpass $5,000 by 2025 as it becomes the first $2.5 trillion company.
Kass’s predictions mark gains of 65% and 175%, respectively, from Thursday’s close of $1,818.
Now, founder Jeff Bezos and his soon-to-be ex-wife MacKenzie are already rolling in dough but if Kass’s prediction comes true their fortunes will triple. MacKenzie’s stake is worth about $35 billion at current prices, and her ex has a stake worth $108 billion. If Amazon shares make it to $5,000, her piece of the pie will be worth a cool $96.2 billion and Bezos’s — $300 billion. Tough life.
“In the annals of U.S. corporate history there is no company that has as large and lengthy runway of opportunity as Amazon.com,” says Kass.
The basis for that lofty share gain is his expectation that Amazon’s earnings per share will beat forecasts by 10% or more for 2019, 2020 and 2021, the last of which he says will mark the biggest annual gain relative to expectations.
He’s also a big bull here because he thinks Wall Street hasn’t really “embraced and exploited” the company like its peers. Amazon has just 57% institutional ownership as a percentage of shares outstanding, versus 75% for Facebook, 77% for Netflix and 81% for Google-parent Alphabet. Oh and Amazon’s cloud service is “icing on the cake,” he adds.
The market
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.46% , Dow DJIA, +0.15% and Nasdaq COMP, +0.59% have all opened higher. See Market Snapshot for more.
There’s not much action across the dollar DXY, +0.07% gold US:GCU8 or crudeUS:CLU8
Europe stocks SXXP, +0.09% are mixed to slightly higher. Asian equities had a mixed day, with China, Hong Kong and others closed for a holiday.
The economy
The U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March, bouncing back from a paltry gain in the previous month. The jobless rate was flat at 3.8% and average wages rose 4 cents. Consumer credit data is due later.
Trump’s plan to nominate Herman Cain to Fed, has triggered some strong reactions.
The buzz
A Chinese newspaper is reporting that President Xi Jinping said in a letter to President Donald Trump that substantial progress has been made in U.S.-China trade talks. That’s on the heels of Trump saying a deal may come within weeks.
A judge has ordered lawyers for Tesla’s TSLA, +2.68% Elon Musk and the SEC to try to reach a resolution over the CEO’s tweets. Is the company creating a credibility problem for investors?
Samsung 005930, -0.21% warns of a 60% drop in first-quarter operating profiton failing memory-chip demand.
Motel 6 will pay $12 million after sharing information of 80,000 people with ICE agents.
The buzz
Our chart of the day from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Flow show is entitled “hubris and humiliation,” and shows the market cap of some giant U.S. corporations as compared with the market capitalization of MSCI equity indexes for a variety of European countries.
MSCI is a global provider of equity and other financial asset indexes.
The quote
“I believe that all good things taken to an extreme can be self-destructive and that everything must evolve or die. This is now true for capitalism.” — That was Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, in an essay posted on LinkedIn, where he lays out the case for reforming capitalism.