Equities Q4 Forecast: Global Stocks’ Strength Masks Vulnerabilities

Global share prices accelerated upward in the third quarter, building on the rebound started in the preceding three months. The benchmark MSCI World stock index is on pace to add 5-6 percent for the period. That such performance can be had against a backdrop of a deepening trade war between the US and China as well as increasing emerging market instability is almost improbably impressive. One might conclude perseverance against such odds speaks to hearty underlying strength, making continuation likely. Still, critical vulnerabilities are much too glaring to ignore; the global economy has decelerated in 2018.

After The Fall: How Significant Is The EM Equities Discount?

Following the recent emerging markets weakness, driven by dollar strength, tighter financial conditions in the US and, in some cases, domestic politics, market watchers are looking at EM assets again.

The chart below shows that FTSE EM equities have moved to a c.21% PE ratio discount to FTSE World equities (dark blue line). In P/E terms, FTSE World equities are trading at 15.5x earnings and EM equities at 12.2x.

A better and more constructive day all around for Asian equities

A better and more constructive day all around for Asian equities as most markets reopened (S. Korea still off) for business. With both the Shanghai and Hang Seng opening firmer, a steady trend developed to return 1% for both indices. Remarks overnight from US President Donald Trump failed to assist US trading or external commitment, but core Asian equities tended to ignore this in favour of a recovery bounce. The Nikkei made headway after a morning rout, rallying over +0.4% by the close whilst the Yen played in the low 113’s. Shanghai and HSI were strong all day. The SENSEX saw the opposite price action to the Nikkei. Having open at the days highs, the balance of the time was spent hitting bids. It did manage a small bounce by the close but still lost -0.35% on the day. The INR is struggling to resist the 73 figure, but this does not look like it can survive for much longer. Expecting the Rupee to continue its weak trend unless some positive constructive action is taken to alleviate the issues. Obviously, the big FED news is too late for the cash markets, but futures are responding well with the Nikkei up around 1% so far.

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