Stock Markets

Major stock indexes showed mixed performance this week, with investors exhibiting cautious optimism following Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to for a + 0.30% weekly gain on the heels of a big Friday rally, following Chair Powell’s speech and the Jackson Hole Symposium. The broad market index rose 0.2% just after the opening bell, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below the flatline.

Market breadth showed encouraging signs as the broadening of the rally, outside of the Magnificent 7 stocks, signals there may be more sustainable momentum building. Stocks ended Thursday in the green, with the S&P 500® index closing above 6,500 for the first time. This milestone reflects continued investor confidence despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

Technology stocks faced headwinds during the week, with Nvidia — The graphics processing unit manufacturer slipped nearly 2% after its data center revenue came in below estimates, highlighting concerns about AI infrastructure spending sustainability.

U.S. Economy

The economic landscape presented a mixed picture this week, with employment data showing resilience while growth concerns persist. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July, maintaining historically low levels that continue to support consumer spending.

Monthly readings of payroll job creation were consistently stronger in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate has remained historically low at just over 4 percent. As of June, a total of 671,000 payroll jobs have been created during the first five months of this Administration.

However, longer-term economic projections suggest moderation ahead. We expect real GDP growth to slow to just 0.8% year over year (y/y) by Q4 2025. The passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” removes one major source of policy uncertainty by extending key expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), thereby averting a fiscal cliff worth 1% of GDP.

Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted toward accommodation, with Investors are exiting August with greater confidence the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals continued their strong performance this week, with gold maintaining its bullish trajectory. Gold prices slowly moving upward and might reach the top of $3,250 – $3,450 range in few days – week. We still expect the price to continue the bullish trend and print new record high.

Silver showed particularly strong gains, with Silver rose to 39.74 USD/t.oz on August 29, 2025, up 1.69% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 7.03%, and is up 37.72% compared to the same time last year, reflecting robust investor demand for precious metals amid currency and geopolitical concerns.

The precious metals rally has been supported by multiple factors including The weakening dollar, Trump’s sudden move against Lisa Cook, and upcoming trade tariffs all pushed investors towards safe-haven assets. Political tensions regarding Federal Reserve independence have added another layer of uncertainty driving safe-haven demand.

Gold continues to benefit from its position as a hedge against monetary policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, maintaining its role as a portfolio diversifier during periods of market volatility.

Energy and Oil

Energy markets remained relatively stable this week, though geopolitical tensions continue to influence price dynamics. Oil prices have been supported by supply concerns and seasonal demand patterns, though specific weekly price movements were limited by broader economic growth concerns.

Natural gas markets showed mixed signals, with regional pricing variations continuing to reflect transportation bottlenecks and local supply-demand imbalances. The upcoming winter heating season preparations are beginning to influence forward curve pricing.

World Markets

European markets demonstrated resilience this week, supported by expectations of continued central bank accommodation and stabilizing economic indicators. Investors remained focused on the European Central Bank’s policy trajectory and its implications for regional growth prospects.

Asian markets showed divergent performance, with Japan facing headwinds from currency strength concerns while Chinese markets benefited from ongoing stimulus measures and improved economic data. The strength of the yen continued to weigh on Japanese export-oriented companies, creating challenges for the Nikkei’s performance.

Emerging markets generally outperformed developed markets as investors sought higher yields and growth prospects amid expectations of global monetary policy easing.

The Week Ahead

The coming week features several critical economic releases that could shape market direction and Federal Reserve policy expectations:

Key Topics to Watch:

• August employment report (September 6)

• Initial jobless claims

• ISM Manufacturing PMI for August

• Consumer sentiment surveys

• Federal Reserve officials’ speeches ahead of blackout period

• Earnings from major technology companies

• Global manufacturing PMI data

• Central bank policy meetings in key economies

Investors will be particularly focused on labor market data as it directly influences Federal Reserve policy decisions for the September meeting. Any signs of continued labor market resilience could complicate expectations for aggressive rate cuts, while weakness might accelerate dovish policy adjustments.

The intersection of domestic economic data, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations will continue to drive market volatility and sector rotation patterns in the week ahead.

Stock Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes posted mixed results this week, with markets showing resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties. The S&P 500 slipped on Friday after hitting a record high, as investors took some gains off the table after a strong week. Despite Friday’s pullback, the index managed to secure its second consecutive weekly gain.

The main stock market index of United States, the US500, fell to 6465 points on August 15, 2025, losing 0.05% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 3.22% and is up 16.40% compared to the same time last year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq has been particularly strong, with stocks higher Friday, leading the three major averages to post winning weeks.

Market volatility remained relatively contained as expectations for lower interest rates continue driving the major indexes to all-time highs. The investor risk appetite showed signs of stabilization following the turbulent periods seen earlier in the month.

Value stocks continued to show relative strength compared to growth names, particularly in sectors benefiting from potential policy shifts and interest rate expectations. Financial sector performance remained solid, supported by expectations of a favorable interest rate environment.

U.S. Economy

This week’s economic landscape was shaped by key inflation and employment data releases. Inflation Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 2.70 percent in July. The stability in inflation readings provided some comfort to markets that had been concerned about persistent price pressures.

Core inflation metrics showed continued moderation, with Core CPI (ex. Food and Energy) at 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually, indicating that underlying price pressures remain elevated but are showing signs of stabilization.

On the employment front, Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.20 percent in July from 4.10 percent in June of 2025. This modest uptick in unemployment reflects a cooling labor market that continues to normalize from historically tight conditions.

The combination of stable inflation and a slightly softening labor market has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have more flexibility in its monetary policy approach in the coming months.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals markets showed mixed performance this week, with gold facing some consolidation pressure after recent gains. Gold fell to 3,335.60 USD/t.oz on August 15, 2025, down 0.00% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold’s price has fallen 0.34%, but it is still 33.01% higher than a year ago.

The gold market has been experiencing sideways trading patterns, with gold prices mostly sideways. No bearish continuation toward the green box area and no strong recovery following recent volatility. Technical analysts note that gold remains in a consolidation phase after significant year-to-date gains.

Silver and other precious metals have faced similar headwinds, with industrial metals showing more sensitivity to economic growth concerns and global trade dynamics.

The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to provide headwinds for precious metals, though geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies remain supportive factors for the sector. Gold maintains its appeal as a portfolio diversifier, offering low correlation to risk assets, no third-party or geopolitical risks, relatively low volatility, and a deep and liquid market in an environment of ongoing economic uncertainty.

Energy and Oil

Energy markets have been influenced by a combination of supply dynamics and demand concerns. Crude oil prices last year were dragged down by weak Chinese demand and a supply glut — market watchers expect prices to remain pressured in 2025.

Oil price movements this week reflected ongoing concerns about global economic growth and energy demand, particularly from major consuming nations. Geopolitical factors continue to provide support, though the overall trend remains influenced by fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

Natural gas markets have shown some volatility, with regional price differences reflecting infrastructure constraints and seasonal demand patterns. The transition to cleaner energy sources continues to influence long-term market dynamics, while short-term pricing remains sensitive to weather patterns and storage levels.

World Markets

European equity markets showed resilience this week, with major indexes benefiting from expectations of continued monetary accommodation by the European Central Bank. Investor sentiment improved on hopes that inflation pressures are moderating, potentially allowing for more aggressive rate cuts.

Japanese markets faced headwinds from currency movements and speculation about Bank of Japan policy adjustments. The yen’s strength against the dollar continued to weigh on export-oriented companies, while domestic policy expectations remained a key focus for investors.

Chinese markets showed signs of stabilization, with government stimulus measures and economic support policies providing some foundation for equity performance. However, ongoing concerns about property sector challenges and global trade dynamics continue to influence investor sentiment.

The Week Ahead

The coming week will feature several important economic releases that could influence market direction:

Key Topics to Watch:

• Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the latest policy session

• Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys

• Initial jobless claims data

• Consumer confidence indicators

• Flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services sectors

• Housing market data including existing and new home sales

• Energy inventory reports • Key earnings releases from major corporations

Market participants will be particularly focused on any signals from Federal Reserve communications regarding the future path of monetary policy, given the current economic backdrop of moderating inflation and a cooling labor market. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical developments and global trade dynamics will remain key factors influencing market sentiment across all asset classes.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes experienced a mixed week with notable volatility across sectors. The S&P 500 slipped 1.6% to close 6,238.01, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 2.24% 20,650.13. However, markets showed resilience later in the week, with the US500 rose to 6389 points on August 8, 2025, gaining 0.78% from the previous session. The S&P 500 gained 0.73% to close at 6,345.06, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.21% and settled at 21,169.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81.38 points, or 0.18%, ending at 44,193.12.

The week was characterized by strong earnings results from key technology companies, particularly Apple, which climbed 5% after a White House official confirmed to CNBC that the iPhone maker is going to benefit from new policy developments. Despite earlier volatility, the rebound in risk appetite drove the S&P 500 up 1.5%, its biggest rally since May. Almost every major group in the US equity benchmark advanced, and about 85% of its companies closed higher.

Looking at year-over-year performance, the index has climbed 2.01% and is up 19.56% compared to the same time last year, demonstrating the market’s underlying strength despite short-term fluctuations.

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic data presented a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 226 thousand in the week ending August 2 of 2025 from 219 thousand in the previous week, indicating a modest uptick in unemployment applications. Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1974 thousand in the week ending July 26 of 2025 from 1936 thousand in the previous week, suggesting some persistence in unemployment levels.

On the inflation front, Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025, showing upward pressure on consumer prices and potentially complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The labor market data suggests some cooling from previous strength, with jobless claims rising though remaining at historically reasonable levels. The uptick in both initial and continuing claims bears watching as an indicator of broader economic momentum.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals showed strong performance this week, particularly silver, which demonstrated exceptional gains. Silver rose to 38.38 USD/t.oz on August 8, 2025, up 0.27% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 5.51%, and is up 39.83% compared to the same time last year, making it one of the standout performers in the commodities sector.

Gold continued to maintain its position as a preferred safe-haven asset despite market volatility. The precious metals complex has benefited from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about monetary policy, with investors seeking assets that traditionally perform well during periods of economic uncertainty.

The strong performance in precious metals, particularly silver’s nearly 40% year-over-year gain, reflects both industrial demand and investment interest. Silver’s dual role as both an industrial metal and a store of value has contributed to its outperformance relative to other precious metals.

Energy and Oil

The energy sector faced headwinds this week, with oil prices declining significantly. Crude Oil fell to 63.35 USD/Bbl on August 8, 2025, down 0.83% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil’s price has fallen 7.36%, and is down 17.56% compared to the same time last year.

The weakness in oil prices reflects multiple factors including concerns about global economic growth, potential increases in supply, and demand uncertainties. The significant year-over-year decline of nearly 18% indicates sustained pressure on energy markets, which contrasts sharply with the strength seen in precious metals.

Natural gas markets remained active, though specific weekly data was limited in available reports. The broader energy complex continues to navigate between supply dynamics and demand concerns amid changing global economic conditions.

World Markets

European equity markets showed generally positive momentum during the week, supported by earnings results and monetary policy expectations. Market participants continued to monitor central bank policies across major economies, with particular attention to potential rate changes and their impact on global equity valuations.

Asian markets displayed mixed performance, with investors weighing regional economic data against global market trends. The interconnected nature of global markets meant that developments in U.S. markets had significant influence on trading patterns across international exchanges.

Emerging markets faced headwinds from dollar strength and commodity price movements, particularly in energy-dependent economies. The divergence between precious metals and energy commodities created different impacts across various international markets.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases scheduled for the coming week include:

Key Topics to Watch:

• U.S. Consumer Price Index for July

• Initial jobless claims for August 15

• Producer Price Index data

• Retail sales figures for July

• Industrial production numbers

• Federal Reserve meeting minutes

• Consumer sentiment preliminary reading for August

Market participants will be particularly focused on inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, while earnings season continues with additional major companies reporting results. The interaction between economic data, corporate earnings, and monetary policy expectations will likely drive market direction in the coming week.

Commodity markets will continue to reflect the balance between economic growth concerns and supply-demand dynamics, with particular attention on energy prices and their potential impact on inflation readings.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes faced significant pressure this week, reversing earlier gains as investors reassessed market valuations amid mixed earnings reports and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 slipped 1.6% to close 6,238.01, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 2.24% 20,650.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 542.40 points, or 1.23%, to finish the session 43,588.58.

The weekly decline marked a notable shift from the previous weeks’ momentum, with technology stocks leading the retreat. Tesla has tumbled more than 22% in 2025, making Tesla the worst performer within megacap tech this year following disappointing earnings results. The broader market selloff was driven by profit-taking in high-flying tech names and concerns about stretched valuations.

Despite the weekly decline, the US500 index is up 16.67% compared to the same time last year, highlighting the market’s strong year-to-date performance even amid recent volatility. The correction appears to be a healthy pullback after an extended rally that saw multiple record highs earlier in the year.

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic focus centered on labor market data, which continued to show resilience despite some softening. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 218 thousand in the week ending July 26 of 2025 from 217 thousand in the previous week. The modest increase in claims suggests the labor market remains stable, though continuing claims data shows some persistence in unemployment levels.

Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States remained unchanged at 1946 thousand in the week ending July 19 of 2025 from 1946 thousand in the previous week. This stability in continuing claims indicates that while new layoffs remain low, those who are unemployed are taking longer to find new positions.

Inflation data from June showed a moderate uptick, with Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This increase brings inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, though it remains within acceptable ranges that shouldn’t trigger immediate policy changes.

Metals and Mining

The precious metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with silver emerging as a standout performer. Silver rose to 37.02 USD/t.oz on August 1, 2025, up 0.93% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 1.25%, and is up 29.60% compared to the same time last year.

Silver’s strong performance reflects continued investor interest in precious metals as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. The metal has significantly outperformed many other asset classes year-to-date, benefiting from both industrial demand and safe-haven flows.

Gold continues to maintain its position as a preferred store of value, particularly as geopolitical tensions persist globally. The precious metals complex remains supported by central bank purchases and portfolio diversification strategies among institutional investors.

Industrial metals showed more mixed results, with supply chain concerns and global economic growth questions weighing on demand expectations. However, green energy transition themes continue to provide underlying support for certain metals used in renewable energy infrastructure.

Energy and Oil

The energy sector faced headwinds this week as oil prices retreated from recent highs. Crude Oil fell to 67.28 USD/Bbl on August 1, 2025, down 3.00% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil’s price has fallen 0.26%, and is down 8.49% compared to the same time last year.

The decline in oil prices reflects concerns about global demand growth, particularly from China, and improved supply conditions in key producing regions. OPEC+ production decisions and U.S. strategic petroleum reserve policies continue to influence market dynamics.

Natural gas markets remain volatile, influenced by weather patterns, storage levels, and export demand. The transition to cleaner energy sources continues to create structural changes in traditional energy markets, affecting both pricing and investment flows.

Renewable energy stocks showed resilience despite broader market weakness, as policy support and technological advances continue to drive long-term growth prospects in the sector.

World Markets

European equity markets displayed mixed performance as investors navigated ongoing economic challenges and policy uncertainties. Central bank policies across the region continue to influence market sentiment, with the European Central Bank maintaining its cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments.

Asian markets showed divergent trends, with Chinese equities continuing their recovery amid government stimulus measures and improving economic data. However, concerns about trade relationships and global economic growth continue to create volatility in the region.

Japan’s markets reflected ongoing speculation about Bank of Japan policy changes, with currency movements affecting export-dependent companies. The yen’s strength against the dollar continues to impact the competitiveness of Japanese manufacturers in global markets.

Emerging markets faced pressure from dollar strength and concerns about capital flows, though some regions benefited from commodity price movements and domestic policy support measures.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases scheduled for the coming week include:

Key Topics to Watch:

• U.S. leading economic indicators for July

• Initial jobless claims for August 8

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July

• Producer Price Index (PPI) for July

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for August

• S&P Global U.S. services PMI for August • S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for August

Market participants will be closely monitoring inflation data to gauge Federal Reserve policy direction, while corporate earnings continue to provide insights into economic conditions across various sectors. Geopolitical developments and central bank communications from major economies will also influence market sentiment in the week ahead.

Stock Markets

U.S. equity markets continued their strong performance this week, with major indexes posting solid gains and multiple record closes. The broad market index ticked up 0.06% to end at 6,309.62 and notch its 11th record close in 2025. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.37 points, or 0.40%, settling at 44,502.44. However, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite showed some weakness, slipped 0.39% and closed at 20,892.69, bogged down by declines in certain tech names.

Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed their large-cap counterparts this week. Over the seven days, the Russell is higher by 2.17%, better than the S&P 500’s 1.44% gain. In July alone, small caps are up 4.62% while large caps have gained 2.4%. This rotation into smaller companies suggests investor confidence in domestic economic growth prospects.

Several individual stocks posted exceptional weekly performance. GoPro shares have soared more than 58% so far this week, while Krispy Kreme shares have surged more than 32%. That marks the biggest weekly gains for each in their respective histories on the public market. Meanwhile, Kohl’s shares have jumped nearly 34% week to date.

The market momentum has been supported by strong earnings expectations and continued optimism around economic resilience. During Thursday’s session, 27 stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs. Notable companies reaching new highs included Warner Bros. Discovery, Citigroup, and Coinbase, indicating broad-based strength across multiple sectors.

U.S. Economy

Economic data this week continued to support the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy operating at or near full employment. The labor market remains tight with unemployment claims staying near historical lows. Consumer sentiment and spending patterns suggest continued economic expansion, though at a more moderate pace than earlier in the recovery.

Inflation metrics remained a key focus for investors, with market participants closely watching for signs that price pressures continue to moderate. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance remains data-dependent, with markets pricing in potential rate adjustments later in the year based on incoming economic indicators.

Corporate earnings season is underway with several major technology companies scheduled to report next week, including Alphabet and Tesla, which could provide important insights into the health of the growth sectors that have driven much of this year’s market gains.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals markets experienced consolidation this week after the strong gains seen earlier in 2025. Gold, silver & copper have had a stellar start to 2025, with prices surging across the board. As of March 6, gold has climbed a glittering 19.33%, silver is up a shiny 12.50%, and copper has posted a solid 11.44% gain.

Gold prices appear to be in a consolidation phase. Gold prices have been consolidating for few weeks between $3,291 – $3,371 where a breakout might happen soon. The precious metal continues to benefit from its role as a portfolio diversifier and hedge against economic uncertainty, though recent price action suggests investors are taking profits after the strong year-to-date performance.

Gold prices could not print new higher swing high in the latest bullish attempt. The price loss ground and move lower, indicating some near-term weakness despite the longer-term bullish trend remaining intact.

Silver has shown similar consolidation patterns, with technical analysts watching key support and resistance levels for the next directional move. Industrial metals like copper continue to reflect global economic growth expectations, with prices supported by ongoing infrastructure spending and energy transition investments.

Energy and Oil

Crude oil markets have been trading in a defined range this week. The price of crude oil mostly trading between $65.00 – $70.00 now, reflecting balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Crude Oil $68.71 represents the current pricing level, suggesting stability in the energy complex.

The oil market continues to navigate competing factors including global economic growth prospects, production levels from major oil-producing nations, and ongoing geopolitical considerations. Recent price action suggests the market has found equilibrium in the current range, though breakouts in either direction remain possible based on fundamental developments.

Energy sector stocks have participated in the broader market rally, with several oil and gas companies posting strong quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations. The sector’s performance has been supported by disciplined capital allocation and improved operational efficiency across the industry.

Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have shown increased volatility as weather patterns and seasonal demand factors come into play. Storage levels remain within normal ranges for this time of year, though regional pricing differentials continue to reflect transportation constraints and local supply-demand imbalances.

The Henry Hub benchmark has experienced typical summer seasonality, with prices generally lower during periods of reduced heating demand but supported by increased power generation needs for cooling. Export demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to provide a price floor as global markets remain connected to U.S. production.

Pipeline capacity additions and production growth from key shale basins continue to influence regional pricing dynamics, with operators focusing on the most economic drilling locations to optimize returns in the current price environment.

World Markets

European equity markets participated in the global rally this week, with major indexes posting gains across the region. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index advanced as investors remained optimistic about economic growth prospects and corporate earnings trends.

Central bank policies across Europe continue to evolve, with the European Central Bank maintaining its cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments. Market participants are closely monitoring inflation trends and economic data for signals about future policy direction.

Asian markets showed mixed performance, with Japanese equities facing headwinds from currency movements while Chinese markets benefited from improved sentiment around domestic economic policies. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance remains accommodative, though market participants continue to watch for potential policy adjustments.

China’s equity markets have shown resilience despite ongoing economic challenges, with government support measures and improved industrial production data contributing to investor confidence. Hong Kong markets have also participated in the regional recovery, though volatility remains elevated due to various macroeconomic factors.

The Week Ahead

The coming week will be particularly important for market direction, with several major technology companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings. These results will provide crucial insights into the health of the growth sectors that have driven much of 2025’s market gains.

Economic data releases will continue to be closely watched, particularly any indicators related to consumer spending, employment, and inflation trends. Federal Reserve officials’ comments and speeches will be scrutinized for hints about future monetary policy direction.

Key Topics to Watch

• Major technology earnings including Alphabet and Tesla

• Weekly initial jobless claims data

• Consumer confidence and spending indicators

• Federal Reserve officials’ speeches and commentary

• International trade and geopolitical developments

• Corporate guidance updates from earnings reports

• Sector rotation trends and performance differentials

The market environment remains generally supportive of risk assets, though investors continue to balance optimism about economic growth with caution about potential headwinds including policy uncertainties and global economic developments. The continued rotation from growth to value stocks and from large-cap to small-cap equities suggests a broadening of market participation that could support sustained gains if economic fundamentals remain strong.

Stock Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes posted gains this week, continuing their upward momentum despite tariff-related uncertainties. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 0.19% to close at 44,541, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.27% to 6,280, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.09% to 20,630. The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.48% gain, closing at 2,263. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained subdued, falling below 16, indicating low market expectations for near-term volatility despite upcoming economic data and tariff deadlines. Sector performance was mixed, with transportation stocks, particularly airlines, leading gains after strong earnings from Delta Air Lines. Technology and communication services saw some weakness due to profit-taking in software stocks, while small-cap stocks continued to outperform large-cap growth stocks.

U.S. Economy

Economic data this week presented a resilient yet cautious picture. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 at 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week and below the consensus estimate of 235,000. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1.965 million, near a three-year high. Nonfarm payrolls for June added 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 118,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.35% year-over-year in May, with core CPI at 2.79%. Personal spending contracted by 0.14% month-over-month, signaling potential consumer fatigue. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised down to -0.5% annualized, driven by stronger imports and inventory adjustments. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes highlighted a divergence among officials on the inflationary impact of tariffs, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, potentially starting in September.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals showed mixed performance. Gold prices rose slightly by 0.14% to $3,325.70 per troy ounce, maintaining above the $2,700 support level despite a strong U.S. dollar. Silver, platinum, and palladium data were not widely reported this week, but industrial metals faced headwinds due to impending tariffs. A 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1, was announced, potentially impacting companies reliant on the metal. Copper prices on the LME were not explicitly updated, but market sentiment suggests caution due to trade policy uncertainties. The gold market continues to benefit from its low correlation to risk assets and geopolitical stability, with analysts expecting it to test higher resistance levels if trade tensions persist.

Energy and Oil

Oil prices remained volatile amid geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns. Brent crude futures were not explicitly quoted this week, but June data indicated a 25% spike due to Middle East tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict. This week’s market commentary suggests oil prices stabilized, with no significant de-escalation in hostilities reported. Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub were not updated for this week, but earlier data showed a rise to $4.083/MMBtu in mid-January. International LNG futures prices for East Asia and the Netherlands’ TTF were also not updated, but prior trends indicated declines to $14.15/MMBtu and $14.00/MMBtu, respectively. Energy sector stocks, including Bitcoin miners and related assets, saw gains driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices to $113,734.64, up 21% year-to-date.

International Markets

European markets trended higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index gaining amid optimism about potential rate cuts. Specific index performance data was not available, but earlier trends showed a 2.37% rise. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes faced pressure from a stronger yen and tariff concerns, with no specific weekly performance reported. In China, the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indexes continued to benefit from economic recovery signals, though June’s Caixin Services PMI fell to 50.6, a nine-month low. The U.S.-Japan trade negotiations remain critical, with a 24% tariff on Japanese imports looming if no agreement is reached by August 1. China’s manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.7 in June, but services growth slowed, raising doubts about further stimulus.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar remained strong, trading near its highest level in over two years, supported by tariff-driven economic policies. The yen strengthened slightly, but specific exchange rates were not reported this week. Earlier data indicated the yen at JPY 155.6 against the dollar. Currency markets are expected to remain sensitive to U.S. tariff announcements and Federal Reserve policy signals.

Economic Indicators

• Jobless Claims: Initial claims fell to 227,000, with continuing claims at 1.965 million.
• Inflation: CPI steady at 2.35%, core CPI at 2.79% in May.
• GDP: Q1 2025 revised to -0.5% annualized.
• Retail Sales: Declined 0.9% in May, signaling consumer slowdown.
• Industrial Production: No specific update, but earlier data showed weakness in manufacturing.
• Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.1% in June.
• Existing Home Sales: Rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, with median prices near all-time highs.
• Consumer Sentiment: Conference Board’s index fell to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May.
• Services PMI: Rose to 53.1 in June, indicating expansion.
• Manufacturing PMI: Held steady at 52.0 in June, signaling continued growth.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases to watch include:

• U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for June
• Initial Jobless Claims for July 12
• Advance Retail Sales for June
• Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) for July
• S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI for July
• S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July
• Producer Price Index (PPI) for June
• Industrial Production for June

These indicators will provide further insight into the U.S. economy’s trajectory amid tariff uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes fell across the board over the trading week. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dipped by 0.54% while the Total Stock Market Index corrected by 0.24%. The broad S&P 500 Index lost by 0.24% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market Composite withdrew by 0.53%. Bucking the trend is the NYSE Composite that ticked up by 0.20%. The investor risk perception indicator, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) moved up by 0.67%.

The week opened with a sharp decline in reaction to the announcement on the preceding Friday that President Donald Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports effective February 1. By the end of Monday, however, President Trump announced that Mexico and Canada agreed to postpone the measure for 30 days. This provided some relief and enabled the markets to recover earlier losses by the week’s end. 

U.S. Economy

Driving market activity this week were earnings-related headlines that captured investors’ attention and sentiment. More than 75% of S&P 500 Index companies that have released their fourth-quarter results through Friday have posted better-than-expected earnings with an average growth rate of 16.4%. This outshines the 11.9% earnings growth estimates according to consensus.  Of the companies that have reported so far, 63% have exceeded sales expectations.

Other than company reports macroeconomic data provided some impetus to the markets. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of factory activity in the U.S., recorded expansion in January for the first time since 2022. However, optimism was somewhat quelled by the prospects that potential tariffs could pose a “huge threat” to a sustained recovery in the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Chair Timothy Fiore on a call with reporters after the PMI-ISM release. Later in the week, the ISM Services PMI for January reported a 52.8 reading, and although it declined from December, it remained solidly in expansion territory.

Topping the week’s economic news was Friday’s much anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. According to the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, lower than both an upwardly revised 307,000 in December and the consensus estimate of 170,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly, from 4.1% in December to 4.0% in January.

Metals and Mining

The bulls are dominating in the gold market as the metal did more than hold its support at $2,800 per ounce, it rallied to a series of new record highs to ultimately touch $2,900 on Friday. The renewed momentum has once more attracted new buyers, prompting many observers to once more eye $3,000 as an attainable target. The more bullish are starting to regard $3,000 as a mere stepping stone, arguing that the market has sufficient strength to go even higher. Gold’s inflation-adjusted all-time high is approximately $3,420. The record was set in January 1980 when prices hit $875 per ounce, at the end of a four-year rally that commenced in August 1976. According to analysts, many of the factors that drove gold’s rally five decades ago are once again at play today, making the all-time inflation-adjusted record seem once more attainable. Additionally, the geopolitical uncertainties regarding global wars and trade continue to compel investors to seek security in safe-haven assets such as gold.

The spot prices of precious metals were mixed for this week. Gold rose by 2.24% from last week’s closing price of $2,798.41 to end the week at $2,861.07 per troy ounce. Silver climbed by 1.66% from its close last week at $31.30 to close at $31.82 per troy ounce. Platinum, which closed last week at $982.56, ended this week at $978.49 per troy ounce for a loss of 0.41%. Palladium closed last week at $1,016.35 and this week at $971.20 per troy ounce for a decline of 4.44%. The three-month LME prices of industrial metals were mostly higher this week. Copper jumped by 3.97% from last week’s close at $9,048.00 to this week’s close at $9,407.50 per metric ton. Aluminum edged higher by 1.31% from its close last week at $2,594.00 to end this week at $2,628.00 per metric ton. Zinc came from its close last week at $2,742.00 to its close this week at $2,840.00 per metric ton, an increase of 3.57%.  Tin was priced last week at $30,102.00 and this week at $31,109.00 per metric ton for an appreciation of 3.35%.

Energy and Oil

After global concerns of a possible US-China trade war became the main talking point of the markets, Brent futures have reversed all their 2025 gains and plunged back to precisely where they began this year. In a meeting among U.S. oil executives in Houston this week, the impact of Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” policy has been played down by these executives who warned the industry that oil production from the prolific U.S. Permian Basin would slow down by at least 25% this year. Production will rise by some 250,000 barrels per day (b/d) after a 380,000 b/d increase in 2024. In any event, the U.S. President’s enthusiasm for increasing U.S. production adds one more bearish note to the prevailing market sentiment. This backdrop sets the stage for a $2-per-barrel week-over-week decline. In the first week of February, ICT Brent is seen to settle slightly below $75 per barrel. 

Natural Gas

For this report week beginning Wednesday, January 29, and ending Wednesday, February 5, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price fell by $0.07 from $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.22/MMBtu. Concerning Henry Hub futures, the March 2025 NYMEX contract price increased to $3.360/MMBtu, up by $0.19 for the week. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2025 through February 2026 futures contracts rose by $0.09 to $3.905/MMBtu. Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $3.32 at Algonquin Citygate to an increase of $0.25 at Eastern Gas South.

International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. Weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia rose by $0.32 to a weekly average of $14.40/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the most liquid natural gas market in Europe, increased by $1.00 to a weekly average of $16.08/MMBtu. The weekly average TTF price has been above the weekly average East Asia price since January 13 of this year. In the week last year corresponding to this report week (beginning January 31 to February 7, 2025), the prices were $9.46/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.07/MMBtu at the TTF.     

World Markets

The pan-Europea STOXX 600 Index ended 0.60% higher and just off a recent record level, despite concerns about U.S. trade policy and stalling economic growth. Major stock indexes climbed for the week. Germany’s DAX gained by 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.29%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose by 1.60%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index advanced by 0.31%. In January, annual price growth in the eurozone remained above the European Capital Bank’s (ECB’s) target for a third consecutive month, accelerating to 2.5% from December’s 2.4%.  Excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, core inflation held at 2.7%. Services price inflation, a closely monitored indicator by policymakers, came in at 3.9%. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.5%, the third interest rate cut since August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the move, citing that it had made sufficient progress on controlling inflation and wage growth. Two members supported a half-point reduction due to a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown. The BoE modified its forecast for the UK’s 2025 economic growth by half to 0.75%.  In Germany, factory orders jumped by 6.9% in December, rebounding from a 5.4% drop the previous month and exceeding consensus expectations for an increase of 2.0%.

Over the week, Japanese stock markets fell. The Nikkei 225 Index dropped by 2.0% while the broader TOPIX Index lost by 1.8%. Recent hawkish comments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) caused the yen to strengthen to rise from JPY 155.2 to the USD at the end of the previous week to the high end of the JPY 151 against the U.S. dollar range. The stronger yen weighed on the profit outlooks of the country’s export-heavy industries. On expectations of further interest rate increases by the BoJ this year, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose from the prior week’s 1.23% to 1.28%. If the economy and prices (as well as wages) develop in line with its forecasts, the bank expects to raise interest rates. The likelihood that more rate hikes will happen is supported by data showing that nominal wages rose sharply in December and the second consecutive month of positive growth in real wages (wages adjusted for inflation), although the surges were mostly due to a significant rise in companies’ winter bonuses. Separate data showed that in December, household spending rebounded by more than expected. According to the BoJ, real wages need to rise so that private consumption can follow an uptrend.

In a shortened trading week, Chinese stocks rose as evidence of strong consumer spending over the Lunar New Year holiday overcame the impact of U.S. President Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose by 1.98% and the Shanghai Composite Index gained by 1.63% from Wednesday to Friday. The mainland stock markets were closed from January 28 to February 4 for the nationwide holiday marking the Lunar New Year. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced by 4.49%. Driven by gains in technology companies, the rally was the market’s best weekly performance in four months. Over the Lunar New Year holiday, a key consumption period for China, travel and retail spending pointed to improved domestic demand. Citing data from ticketing site Maoyan, Bloomberg reported that box office receipts over the eight-day holiday jumped to $1.3 billion over last year’s holiday. According to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the volume of domestic trips rose during the holidays by a record 501 million, 5.9% higher than last year. However, although holiday sales data was solid, other data indicated weakness in the broader economy. The Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 51 in January from 52.2 in December (above 50 signifies expansion, below 50 contraction). This meant that the pace of expansion in business activity and new orders both slowed to their lowest level in four months.

The Week Ahead

The CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales data, and a host of talks by top Fed officials are among the events to look forward to in the coming week.

Key Topics to Watch

• NFIB optimism index for Jan.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks (Feb. 11)   
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (Feb. 11)           
• San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks (Feb. 11)  
• New York Fed President Williams speaks (Feb. 11)
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (Feb. 11)   
• Consumer price index for Jan.
• CPI year over year     
• Core CPI for Jan.
• Core CPI year over year        
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (Feb. 12)
• New York Fed President Williams speaks (Feb. 12)
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks (Feb. 12)          
• Monthly U.S. federal budget for Jan.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks (Feb. 12)  
• Initial jobless claims for Feb. 8
• Producer price index for Jan.
• Core PPI for Jan.
• PPI year over year      
• Core PPI year over year         
• Import price index for Jan.
• Import price index minus fuel for Jan.
• U.S. retail sales for Jan.
• Retail sales minus autos for Jan.
• Industrial production for Jan.
• Capacity utilization for Jan.
• Business inventories for Dec.
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks (Feb. 14)  

Markets Index Wrap-Up

Stock Markets

The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 0.27% for the week, although the broader stock indexes were generally down week-on-week. The Total Stock Market Index fell by 0.95%, while the broad S&P 500 Index slumped by 1.00%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market Composite dropped by 1.64%, although the NYSE Composite ticked up by 0.01%.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the indicator of investor risk perception, rose by 10.64%.  The DJIA’s modest rise has garnered its third straight week of gains.

The Nasdaq Composite took a particularly deep plunge on Monday due to a sell-off in tech stocks in response to the rise of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) developer. According to reports, DeepSeek released a new open-source large language model that requires much less energy and processing power than the other leading AI applications. This has led to competitive concerns among the established leaders in the AI industry. As a result, shares of NVIDIA dropped by almost 17% on Monday,

The earnings season also proceeded with companies comprising about 40% of the S&P 500 Index’s market capitalization reporting results during the week. Several positive earnings surprises appeared to be a tailwind for stocks late in the week and helped most of the major indexes recover some of the losses encountered at the beginning of the week. Most of these stocks that reported stellar and upbeat forward guidance were some notable large-cap tech companies, including Meta Platforms and Apple.

U.S. Economy

Fourth-quarter GDP appears to indicate that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. Although the economy grew by 2.3% annualized, this is still slightly below the forecasts called for 2.4%. The main driver of the expansion was consumer spending, which accounts for about 68% of the economy. It rose by a 4.2% annualized rate, which was the highest reading since the first quarter of 2023. The primary detractors were downturns in investment and exports which contributed to a decline in real GDP growth from the prior quarter. For 2024, real GDP grew by 2.8%, down from 2,9% in 2023.

With the unemployment rate at 4.1% and job openings exceeding unemployment, it is likely that a healthy labor market could keep wage gains above inflation to provide positive real wages. Furthermore, the U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilizing this month despite remaining in contraction for most of the past two years. A healthy labor market and positive real wages may be expected to support consumer spending. Together with the stabilizing manufacturing sector, these factors should continue to sustain the economy’s momentum for 2025. A recession is unlikely although growth could cool in the first semester of this year as consumers, especially those in the lower income bracket, potentially pull back on discretionary spending. The latter half of the year has the potential for growth to resume acceleration due to Fed interest-rate cuts, together with deregulation, tax cuts, and other pro-growth policies.

Metals and Mining

As the world braces for a new trade war in less than 24 hours, it is not surprising that gold has surged to record highs above $2,800 per ounce. Donald Trump announced that on February 1, he would impose 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and 10% on goods from China. Canada and Mexico have responded by preparing a list of retaliatory tariffs on American goods. Some provinces in Canada have threatened to halt energy exports to the U.S. A global trade war would heighten geopolitical uncertainty, in addition to driving inflation higher and weakening global economic growth. Investors recognize this as an ideal environment for gold, which carries no third-party risk and serves as a hedge against inflation.   

The spot prices of precious metals mostly gained for the week. Gold climbed by 1.00% from its close last week at $2,770.58 to end this week at $2,798.41 per troy ounce. Silver added 2.32% to last week’s closing price of $30.59 to close at $31.30 per troy ounce, Platinum rose by 3.27% from its last weekly price of $951.45 to settle at $982.56 per troy ounce. Palladium ascended by 2.88% from its close last week at $987.93 to settle this week at $1,016.35 per troy ounce. The three-month LME prices of industrial metals were generally down. Copper dipped by 2.46% from its close the prior week at $ 9,276.00 to close at $9,048.00 per metric ton. Aluminum dropped by 1.78% from its price last week at $2,641.00 to end at $2,594.00 per metric ton. Zinc, which ended last week at $2,827.50, closed this week at $2,742.00 per metric ton for a loss of 3.02%. Tin closed last week at $30,156.00 and this week at $30,102.00 for a slide of 0.18%.

Energy and Oil

This week, oil prices finished this week about $2 per barrel lower than last week. The January ICE Brent futures contract was set to expire just below $77 per barrel. While this is the second straight week the price of oil declined, there is every reason to believe that oil prices may spike next week. Donald Trump has set February 1 as the deadline for the imposition of 25% trade tariffs for Canada and Mexico. Should this threat materialize, the oil bulls will likely drive Brent prices back above the $80 per barrel level.  In the meantime, the new U.S. Transportation Secretary Dean Duffy directed U.S. regulators to rescind the Biden-era fuel economy standards, raising CAFÉ requirements for light-duty vehicles to 50.4 miles per gallon by 2031 from the present 39.1 miles per gallon. 

Natural Gas

For the report week from Wednesday, January 22, to Wednesday, January 29, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price fell by $0.60 and from $3.89 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.29/MMBtu. Regarding Henry Hub futures, the February 2025 NYMEX contract expired by the week’s end at $3.535/MMBtu, down by $0.43 from the start of the report week. The March 2025 NYME contract price dropped to $3.170/MMBtu, down by $0.34 through the report week. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2025 through February 2026 contracts decreased by $0.25 to $3.813/MMBtu. As for select regional spot prices, natural gas spot prices fell at all major pricing locations. Price drops ranged from $3.97 at Transco Zone 6 NY to $0.03 at PG&E Citygate.

International gas futures prices rose for this report week. Weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased by $0.06 to a weekly average of $14.08/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased by $0.52 to a weekly average of $15.08/MMBtu. For the week last year corresponding to this week (beginning January 24 and ending January 31, 2024), the prices were $9.42/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.13/MMBtu at the TTF.

World Markets

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index reached a record high this week when it rose by 1.78% in local currency terms. The stellar performance was driven by strong earnings results and the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) decision to cut interest rates which boosted investor sentiment. France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.28% and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose by 0.78%. Germany’s DAX outperformed, climbing by 1.58% and hitting a new intraday peak during the week. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index surged by 2.02% as the pound sterling depreciated against the U.S. dollar. The currency adjustment helped to support the index, which includes many multinational companies that are generating overseas revenues. As the market expected, the ECB reduced its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. The disinflation process was “well on track” and the decision was unanimous, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde. She did not indicate, however, how long the ECB might keep cutting rates. On the economic front, the eurozone economy stalled in the final three months of last year relative to the third quarter of 2024. Germany and France, the bloc’s largest economies, contracted in comparison to the third quarter. Spain, on the other hand, had a GDP growth of 0.8%. Italy’s GDP was flat, neither expanding nor contracting. The EU-harmonized 12-month inflation rate for January registered at 1.8% in Spain, remained at 2.8% in Germany, and accelerated to 2.9% in Spain.

Over the week, Japan’s stock markets demonstrated mixed performance. The Nikkei 225 Index dropped by 0.9%. The broader TOPIX Index, on the other hand, gained 1.37%. Weighing on the share prices of Japanese chip companies was a sell-off in major technology stocks early in the week in response to the emergence of Chinese company DeepSeek. The firm is a potential challenger to what has hitherto been seen as U.S. artificial intelligence dominance. DeepSeek caught the market off-guard and created downward pressure on the share prices of American and Japanese chip companies. Domestic stocks also reacted to the hawkish position of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) which raised interest rates for the third time within a year and revised its inflation forecast upward in its monetary policy meeting held on January 23-24. The yen strengthened to the high end of JPY 154 against the U.S. dollar from JPY 156 at the end of the week preceding. Regarding economics, the Tokyo-area core consumer price index, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in January, up from 2.4% in December and in line with expectations. The trend reinforced a hawkish outlook for BoJ monetary policy, although a relatively weak growth backdrop remains a downside risk and supports a gradual hiking pace.

Markets on the mainland will remain closed from January 28 to February 4 for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume trading on February 5. During this holiday-shortened week, Chinese stock markets edged lower. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index on Monday, the last trading day preceding the nationwide holiday. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index registered slight gains on Monday and a half-day session on Tuesday before the markets suspended trading for the rest of the week. On Monday, government data released showed that China’s economy launched 2025 on a weak footing. According to the country’s statistics bureau, the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) surprisingly fell to 49.1 in January. The nonmanufacturing PMI (a measure of construction and services activity) dipped to 50.2 from 52.2 in December. Index readings above 50 signal expansion while those below 50 indicate contraction. Because millions of workers return to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year, it is typical for China’s manufacturing PMI to weaken in January. Other data released on Monday, however, pointed to weakness in China’s economy at the end of 2024. According to the statistics bureau, profits at large industrial companies descended by 3.3% in 2024. This marks the third consecutive year of declines. The fall in industrial profits is seen by economists to reflect the deflationary pressures on China’s economy. Domestic demand appears to have been curbed by the three straight years of economy-wide declines amid a yearslong real estate downturn.

The Week Ahead

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, the ISM services report, and the employment and nonfarm payrolls report are some of the important economic releases scheduled for the coming week.

Key Topics to Watch

• S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI for Jan.
• Construction spending for Dec.
• ISM manufacturing for Jan.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks (Feb. 3)
• Auto sales for Jan.
• Job openings for Dec.
• Factory orders for Dec.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on housing (Feb. 4)
• San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks (Feb. 4)
• Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson speaks (Feb. 4)
• ADP employment for Jan.
• U.S. trade deficit for Dec.
• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks (Feb. 5)
• S&P final U.S. services PMI for Jan.
• ISM services for Jan.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks (Feb. 5)
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (Feb.5)
• Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson speaks (Feb 5)
• Initial jobless claims for Feb. 1
• U.S. productivity for Q4
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks (Feb. 6)
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks (Feb. 6)
• U.S. employment report for Jan.
• U.S. unemployment rate for Jan.
• U.S. hourly wages for Jan.
• Hourly wages year over year
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (Feb, 7)
• Wholesale inventories for Dec.
• Consumer sentiment (prelim) for Jan.
• Consumer credit for Dec.

Markets Index Wrap-Up

Stock Markets

The week began with the inauguration of the 47^th U.S. President, Donald Trump. On his first day in office, Trump signed a record 26executive orders that, from a macroeconomic perspective, focused on four key areas, namely energy, immigration reform, tariffs, and technology. The new policy proposals were in general more measured and less severe than initially expected, which the market welcomed, although it does not dispel the likelihood of market volatility ahead as policy updates are released.

Major stock indexes were up for the week. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advanced by 2.15% while the Total Stock Market Index added 1.72%. The broad S&P 500 Index gained by 1.74% and notched a new record high intraweek. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market Composite gained 1.65%, and the NYSE Composite also added 1.99%. For the first time this year, growth stocks outperformed value shares as measured by the Russell indexes. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures investor risk perception, fell by 7.01%.

On Tuesday, President Trump announced a new joint venture between Softbank, Open AI, Oracle, and Stargate, which will inject $500 billion towards the development of an AI-supportive infrastructure. This spurred a rally among AI-related stocks in anticipation of a potential jump in spending. As the first 100 days of this new administration play out, strong fundamentals underlie the investing environment supported by a healthy consumer and positive economic and earnings growth. This should prevail and even improve as new policies are rolled out since most of the uncertainty is already resolved.

U.S. Economy

On Friday morning, S&P Global released its first estimate of January economic activity. The report states that growth in business activity slowed month-on-month in January but remained expansionary. For the first time in six months, the report indicated that business activity was supported by a return to growth in the manufacturing sector. Services activity continued to grow during the month, although the pace of growth was slower.

On Friday, the National Association of Realtors also reported existing home sales for the month of December. According to the report, sales rose by 2.2% during the month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million, the highest reading in ten months. The report also noted, however, that despite the upside surprise at the year’s end, amid elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices existing home sales for the full year dropped to the lowest level in almost 30 years.

In January, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment declined for the first time in six months from, 74.0 in December to 71.1. The drop is largely attributed to rising inflation expectations and concerns regarding unemployment.

Metals and Mining

For gold investors, the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47^th President of the United States marked an auspicious start. Gold prices have closed the week near $2,800 per ounce, close to their record highs from late October. Global uncertainties and mounting concerns about inflation are the factors that have caused gold to thrive presently. Before Trump’s inauguration, several market experts and economists warned that his policies, particularly regarding tariffs, tend to push inflation higher and may compromise global economic growth. For now, gold’s outlook appears robust although some volatility may develop along the way. The uptrend of gold prices may be sustained although further volatility may be driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty.  

The spot market for precious metals gained ground this week. Gold closed last week at $2,703.25 and gained 2.49% to end this week at $2,770.58 per troy ounce. Silver ended last week at $30.37 and increased by 0.72% to settle this week at $30.59 per troy ounce. Platinum, with a closing price last week at $944.40, rose by 0.75% to close at $951.45 per troy ounce. Palladium, formerly at $951.50, ascended by 3.83% to settle this week at $987.93 per troy ounce. The three-month LME prices of industrial metals were mixed. Copper closed the week at $9,276.00 per metric ton, 0.94% higher than last week’s close at $9,190.00. Aluminum ended this week at $2,641.00 per metric ton, lower by 1.62% from the last weekly close of $2,684.50. Zinc closed this week at $2,827.50, lower by 3.89% from last week’s close at $2,942.00. Tin ended this week at $30,156.00 per metric ton for a gain of 1.28% over last week’s close at $29,775.00        

Energy and Oil

The key theme throughout the week revolved around uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff threats on Canada and Mexico. Oil markets continued to await February 1 to discern whether the talk about tariffs is part of a negotiation tactic or something more. As ICE Brent ticked lower to $79 per barrel, US President Donald Trump also called on OPEC to immediately increase oil production in order to lower oil prices, raising another contentious issue between the cartel and the White House. President Trump further announced that his administration would cease buying crude oil from Venezuela. If this pushes through it will potentially rescind the 2022 Chevron waiver that allowed the U.S. major to ramp up production to 200,000 barrels per day across the country.

Natural Gas

For the report week beginning Wednesday, January 15, and ending Wednesday, January 22, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price fell by $0.54 from $4.43 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.89/MMBtu. The Henry Hub reached an intraweek high on Friday, January 17 of $10.07/MMBtu, its highest price since January 2024. Regarding Henry Hub futures, the price of the February 2025 NYMEX contract decreased by $0.12, from $4.083/MMBtu at the start of the report week to $3.960/MMBtu at the week’s end. The price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2025 through January 2026 futures contracts rose by $0.04 to $4.011/MMBtu. Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $0.97 at PG&E Citygate to an increase of $11.04 at Transco Zone 6 NY.

International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. The weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased by $0.14 to a weekly average of $14.01/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the most liquid natural gas market in Europe, increased by $0.57 to a weekly average of $14.57/MMBtu. In the week last year corresponding to this report week (beginning January 17 and ending January 24, 2024), the prices were $9.49/MMBtu in East Asia and $8.92/MMBtu at the TTF.  

World Markets

European stocks climbed this week after U.S. President Trump did not announce new tariffs in his first week in office. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 1.23% higher in local currency terms. Also driving stocks higher is the growing expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could consider further cutting interest rates. Germany’s DAX rose by 2.35% and France’s CAC 40 Index ascended by 2.83%. Falling by 0.18%, however, was Italy’s FTSE MIB. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index was hardly changed. In the Eurozone, business activity increased slightly in January, according to purchasing managers’ surveys compiled by S&P Global. Demand, however, continued to be weak. The composite output index registered 50.2, up from 49.6 – an optimistic reading, since levels above 50 denote expansion. For the second consecutive month, activity in the services sector increased modestly. Manufacturing remains contractionary but companies expect that output will increase one year forward. In France, business activity also remains contractionary; in Germany, however, the condition has stabilized after six straight months of declines. In the rest of the European bloc, activity expanded modestly for the 13^th consecutive month. In the UK, wage growth, excluding bonuses, climbed to a six-month high of 6.0% in the three months through November. This is in line with expectations. The unemployment rate, however, unexpectedly rose to 4.4% at the same time the payroll numbers experienced its sharpest drop since November 2020. There was also a further fall in job openings.

Japan’s stock markets gained over the week over the hopes that Japanese exporters would further be boosted by the decision of U.S. President Trump to refrain from imposing new tariffs on his first day in office. The Nikkei 225 Index rose by 3.85% and the broader TOPIX Index climbed by 2.67% for the week. A stronger currency has posed a modest headwind. The yen appreciated from the low JPY 156 range at the end of the previous week to the high end of the JPY 155 range versus the US dollar. Comments by Japan’s finance minister suggesting that the government may be prepared to take appropriate action to support the yen underpinned the gains of the yen. In a hawkish move, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate for the third time in a year. The 0.25 percentage point increase brought the policy rate to about 0.5%. This is its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. From the prior week’s 1.20%, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.23%. Provided that the BoJ’s outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, the central bank will accordingly continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation. Further monetary policy normalization by the BoJ is supported by the latest consumer inflation data. Recent reports showed that price growth was well above the central bank’s 2% target. In December 2024, Japan’s core consumer price index rose by 3.0% year-on-year, up from November’s 2.7% year-on-year and matching expectations.

The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.33% this week while the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 0.54%. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index added 2.46%.  Chinese stocks rose amid news that President Trump may be taking a softer stance on China tariffs. Banks’ one- and five-year loan prime rates were left unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. In October, Chinese lenders cut the benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points, a higher-than-expected level, to revive the economy. Analysts foresee that the central bank will continue to ease monetary policy in 2025, and even potentially cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. In the meantime, Beijing intensified efforts to ease market uncertainty caused by the new U.S. administration. On the economic front, China’s youth unemployment rate fell for the fourth straight month since reaching its recent highest level in August 2024. Excluding students, the December jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds declined to 15.7% from November’s 16.1%. In the prior week, data released showed the nationwide jobless rate edged up to 5.1% in December from 5% in November.    

The Week Ahead

The FOMC meeting, durable goods orders for December, and the first preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter GDP are among the important economic releases scheduled for the coming week.

Key Topics to Watch

• New home sales for Dec.
• Durable-goods orders for Dec.
• Durable-goods minus transportation for Dec.
• S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for Nov.
• Consumer confidence for Jan.
• Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods for Dec.
• Advanced retail inventories for Dec.
• Advanced wholesale inventories for Dec.
• FOMC interest-rate decision 
• Fed Chair Powell press conference (Jan. 29)
• GDP for Q1
• Initial jobless claims for Jan. 25
• Pending home sales for Dec.
• Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks (Jan. 31)
• Employment cost index for Q4
• Personal income (nominal) for Dec.
• Personal spending (nominal) for Dec.
• PCE index for Dec.
• PCE (year-over-year) 
• Core PCE index for Dec.
• Core PCE (year-over-year)    
• Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for Jan.

Markets Index Wrap-Up

Stock Markets

All major stock indexes ended in positive territory this week, rebounding from the sharp sell-off last week and erasing the losses of the prior week. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged by 3.69%, slightly better than the Total Stock Market weekly gain of 3.12%. The broad S&P 500 climbed by 2.91% while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market Composite went up by 2.45%. The NYSE Composite gained 3.40%. The investor risk perception indicator, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped by 18.27%.

The Russell 1000 shares indicate that value stocks outperformed growth shares by the widest weekly margin since September. This was partly driven by outperformance in the energy sector amid higher oil prices. There was also some profit-taking in large-cap technology stocks. The financial sector also posted strong weekly gains after the banking giants reported strong rises in profits during the fourth quarter. 

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic high point came on Wednesday with the release of the Labor Department’s December inflation report. The headline inflation signaled an acceleration from November. However, core inflation – which excludes food and energy – rose by 0.2% in December, a tick lower than the prior month and the smallest increase since July. The year-over-year core inflation figure likewise slowed from 3.3% in November to 3.2% in December.

On Thursday, the jobless claims data for the week ending January 11 was released. New applications for unemployment rose from 203,000 in the prior week to 217,000 during the current week, exceeding consensus estimates. The four-week average of claims, however, dropped modestly. Continuing claims also dropped from 1.88 million in the previous week to 1.86 million in the current week.

Metals and Mining

The spot market for precious metals remains in breakout mode. Gold holds above the former critical resistance, now support, level of $2,700 and ended this week at $2,703.25 per troy ounce, 0.50% above last week’s close at $2,689.76. Silver settled this week at $30.37 per troy ounce, 0.13% lower than last week’s close at $30.41. Platinum corrected to end the week at $944.40 per troy ounce, 2.22% lower than last week’s closing price of $965.80. Palladium ended the week at $951.50 per troy ounce, higher by 0.03% from last week’s close at $951.17. The three-month LME prices of industrial metals were mostly up. Copper came from its previous weekly close at $9,091.50 and ended the week at $9,190.00 per metric ton for a rise of 1.08%. Aluminum, which ended last week at $2,571.50, closed this week at $2,684.50 per metric ton for a 4.39% gain.  Zinc ended at $2,942.00 per metric ton this week, 2.58% higher than last week’s close at $2,868.00. Tin closed at $29,775.00 per metric ton, 0.37% lower than last week’s close at $29,886.00.

The gold market previously struggled since the November 5 election under President-elect Donald Trump’s push toward a world trade war. It appears, however, that this conjecture is likely to dissipate as the effects of the America First policies become clearer. Gold has broken out of the $2,700 resistance level and continues to remain above it, despite the solid momentum of the US dollar. The currency is trading at or near its highest level in more than two years. Analysts warned that a global trade war may keep consumer prices high and arrest global growth. Geopolitical worries also were expected to weigh on the economic environment even as the government debt levels weighed on bond markets. The anticipated challenges, however, have failed to hold back investor sentiment. Gold remains the singular global asset that has a low correlation to risk assets, no third-party or geopolitical risks, relatively low volatility, and a deep and liquid market. Gold may continue to test higher critical resistance levels.

Energy and Oil

Backwardation continues to expand in both Brent and Dubai futures despite the relentless oil price rally that pushed Brent to break the $82-per-barrel resistance level. Lower prices from next week onwards could be brought about by a potential de-escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas, leading to the Houthis ending their maritime warfare in the Red Sea. This week, however, remains firmly in bullish territory. In other stories, the head of Libya’s National Oil Corporation Farhat Bengdara has resigned his post after three years at the helm of the state oil firm. His stewardship was marred by repeated shutdowns, militia interference, and haggling over revenue allocation.

Natural Gas

For the week beginning Wednesday, January 8, and ending Wednesday, January 15, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price rose by $0.67 from $3.76 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $4.083/MMBtu. Regarding the Henry Hub futures, the price of the February 2025 NYMEX contract increased by $0.43, from $3.651/MMBtu to $4.083/MMBtu throughout the report week. The last time the front-month contract settled above $4.00/MMBtu was on January 4, 2023, when it settled at $4.172/MMBtu. The price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2025 through January 2026 futures contracts climbed by $0.29 to $3.967/MMBtu. Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $5.00 at Transco Zone 6 NY to an increase of $1.14 at PG&E Citygate.

International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. The weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased by $0.15 to a weekly average of $14.15/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the most liquid natural gas market in Europe, decreased by $0.55 to a weekly average of $14.00/MMBtu. In the week last year corresponding to this report week (the week beginning January 10 and ending January 17, 2024), the prices were $10.51/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.62/MMBtu at the TTF.

World Markets

European equity trended higher this week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index settled 2.37% higher than last week as investor sentiments rose on slower-than-expected inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. Market participants’ hopes climbed that central banks could continue to cut interest rates this year. Major stock indexes jumped sharply. Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed by 3.36%, Germany’s DAX added 3.41%, and France’s CAC 40 Index gained 3.75%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index surged by 3.11%. The European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes of its December meeting. The ECB acknowledged that they need to lower interest rates cautiously and gradually as they reduced interest rates for the third time in a row. By the end of January, the market seems to expect another quarter-point reduction in the deposit rate to 2.75%.  Various ECG officials emphasized the outlook’s exceptional uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, potential global trade frictions, and fiscal policy concerns in the region.

Japan’s stock markets declined during the week. The Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.9% and the broader TOPIX Index gave up 1.3%. There were heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates at its January 23-24 monetary policy meeting, based on hawkish comments from the central bank officials. This speculation provided support to the yen, which strengthened to around JPY 155.6 against the U.S. dollar, from around JPY 157.6 at the end of the week before. The profit outlook of Japan’s export-heavy industries was weighed down by the strength of the yen. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond climbed near its highest level during the week to as high as 1.25%, although it eventually settled at the 1.20% level. While the BoJ stressed that rates will be raised if economic and price conditions keep improving, recent concerns emerged around U.S. economic policies regarding tariffs and fiscal policy. Some investors believe that an increase in the policy rate will be delayed until March or April.

Despite persistent deflationary pressures, Chinese equities rose as the economy improved. The Shanghai Composite Index added 2.31% while the blue-chip CSI 300 gained by 2.14%. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index rose by 2.73%. China’s GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 5.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. The economy grew by a quarterly 1.6%, up from a revised 1.3% gain in the preceding quarter. The GDP for the year reached 5%, attaining Beijing’s target for the year. Other data supported China’s recovery. Industrial production rose by 6.2% exceeding forecasts, up from the 5.4% increase in November. This is attributed partly to higher auto, computer, and solar cell sales. In December, retail sales grew by 3.7% from a year earlier, up from November’s 3% increase. In the January to December period, fixed asset investment was 3.2% from a year ago, slightly down from a 3.3% rise in the month preceding. Property investment declines deepened to 10.6% year-on-year. The unemployment rate moved up to 5.1%.  

The Week Ahead

The Conference Board’s leading economic index and S&P Global PMI data are among the important economic releases scheduled for the coming week.

Key Topics to Watch

• U.S. leading economic indicators for Dec.
• Initial jobless claims for Jan. 18
• Existing home sales for Dec.
• Consumer sentiment (final) for Jan.
• S&P flash U.S. services PMI for Jan.
• S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for Jan.

Markets Index Wrap-Up